The world has moved on. We’ve had the elections, Brazilian, Israeli and American. And mirabile dictu, wonderful to relate, we’ve had surprises and the bad guys have been battered. This post covers Brazil, Israel – and, a happy surprise, Serbia.
I gave a big cheer, alarmed my wife, when, still half-asleep, I heard that Lula had won in Brazil. He lifted his share of the vote from 48% in the first round of the election to 52% in the second, a consequence of last-minute recruitment to the cause, made possible by a vast social media campaign. Afraid of indictment on money-laundering charges, his opponent Flávio Bolsonaro has fled the country.
We’ve had much comment about corruption in Brazilian politics, and how it’s embedded. Whether an 81-year-old left-wing leader with a hard-right Congress can do much is open to question. His first instinct has always been to reinforce his base, upping, for example, the level of the bolsa familia support for low-income families. Borrowing costs and over-regulation, and corruption issues, may continue to hold the Brazilian economy back. But better a leader who respects democracy than leaders in the Trump mode who would circumvent it.
What has amazed me is the almost total absence in the press of any mention of the Amazon. Lula had reversed the deforestation policies of Flavio Bolsonaro’s father, Jair. Father and son have climate denying agendas and little regard for the welfare of indigenous peoples. Lula’s victory has (for now) averted a catastrophe.
And then came Serbia, which I didn’t even mention in my last post. What looked to be a foregone conclusion for Alexandar Vucic became a big majority for the Student List, a party born out of student opposition, with no leaders. Corruption and authoritarian rule were their target. The country has, nonetheless, to stay onside with Russia, its primary source of oil and natural gas. Also, the new party is as hardline on Kosovo as its predecessor. Kosovo as part of Serbia is part of an ordinary Serbian’s DNA.
Another recent election, in Bulgaria, has returned a pro-Russian president. So all is not well in the Balkans. Far from it.
Ten days ago we had the Israeli election, with Netanyahu and Likud holding their share of the vote but no longer sure of enough support from their partners in the previous coalition to form a government. We heard two days ago that Gadi Eisenkot, former military chief and leader of the Yashar party, launched just a year ago, has been asked by the Israeli president to try and form a government. Long weeks of negotiation will probably pass before a resolution.
Could there be a coalition with the Arab parties who won 20% of the vote? That has to be unlikely: it could entail their recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, which they’ve never done. Eisenkot is as opposed as Netanyahu to a two-state solution. But reining in violent settlers, guaranteeing a degree of stability on the West Bank, would be a first step.
My next post will cover the USA.
